The report from the Met Office says even if emissions peaked in 2020, there would only be a 50 per cent chance of temperature rising more than 2C.
The results from the study were presented at the Copenhagen climate change conference, where it has been agreed that the G8 target of limiting global warming to 2C should be met to prevent temperatures reaching dangerous levels.
The Met Office, in their AVOID study, also said it was 'virtually impossible' to reduce the rise by 1.5C as proposed by some developed countries. AVOID is a research programme funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 'providing key advice to the UK government on avoiding dangerous climate change'.
The research concluded that if peaking was reached in 2018 and shrinking emissions by four per cent per year after, there would be a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below the target 2C.
But if the peak came in 2020, the decline would then have to be five per cent per year for the same target.
'If you go to 2025 before peaking, it's virtually impossible to stay under two degrees,' Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, told the BBC.
'If you reduced everything to zero immediately you'd still get about 1.3C because of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.'
The results from the study were presented at the Copenhagen climate change conference, where it has been agreed that the G8 target of limiting global warming to 2C should be met to prevent temperatures reaching dangerous levels.
The Met Office, in their AVOID study, also said it was 'virtually impossible' to reduce the rise by 1.5C as proposed by some developed countries. AVOID is a research programme funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 'providing key advice to the UK government on avoiding dangerous climate change'.
The research concluded that if peaking was reached in 2018 and shrinking emissions by four per cent per year after, there would be a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below the target 2C.
But if the peak came in 2020, the decline would then have to be five per cent per year for the same target.
'If you go to 2025 before peaking, it's virtually impossible to stay under two degrees,' Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, told the BBC.
'If you reduced everything to zero immediately you'd still get about 1.3C because of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.'
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