By Matthew Champion.
Earth's future will hinge on untested and dangerous technologies unless carbon emissions are cut, a major new study has concluded.
Geo-engineering technologies, which involve removing CO2 emissions or reflecting the sun's rays, are 'very likely to be technically possible [and] potentially useful', scientists claimed on Tuesday.
The claim is made despite significant uncertainties surrounding the techniques' effectiveness, cost and environmental impact.
The UK Royal Society, which carried out the research, said the high-risk strategy of geo-engineering, and its consequences, may be the 'price we may have to pay for failure to act on climate change'.
Professor John Shepherd, who led the study, elaborated: 'It is an unpalatable truth that unless we can succeed in greatly reducing CO2 emissions we are headed for a very uncomfortable and challenging climate future, and geo-engineering will be the only option left to limit further temperature increases.
'Our research found that some geo-engineering techniques could have serious unintended and detrimental effects on many people and ecosystems - yet we are still failing to take the only action that will prevent us from having to rely on them.'
Two geo-engineering techniques evaluated by the Royal Society included carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM).
CDR techniques address the root of the problem - rising CO2 - and so have fewer uncertainties and risks, as they work to return the Earth to a more normal state.
They are therefore considered preferable to SRM techniques, but none has yet been demonstrated to be effective at an affordable cost, with acceptable environmental impacts, and they only work to reduce temperatures over very long timescales.
SRM techniques act by reflecting the sun's energy away from Earth, meaning they lower temperatures rapidly, but do not affect CO2 levels.
They therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, such as ocean acidification, and would need to be deployed for a very long time.
Although they are relatively cheap to deploy, there are considerable uncertainties about their regional consequences, and they only reduce some, but not all, of the effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems.
The report concludes that SRM techniques could be useful if a threshold is reached where action to reduce temperatures must be taken rapidly, but that they are not an alternative to emissions reductions or CDR techniques.
Professor Shepherd added, 'None of the geo-engineering technologies so far suggested is a magic bullet, and all have risks and uncertainties associated with them.
'It is essential that we strive to cut emissions now, but we must also face the very real possibility that we will fail.
'If plan B is to be an option in the future, considerable research and development of the different methods, their environmental impacts and governance issues must be undertaken now.
'Used irresponsibly or without regard for possible side effects, geo-engineering could have catastrophic consequences similar to those of climate change itself.
'We must ensure that a governance framework is in place to prevent this.'
Environmental campaigners are currently counting down to the Copenhagen climate change conference, which begins on December 7th.
Earth's future will hinge on untested and dangerous technologies unless carbon emissions are cut, a major new study has concluded.
Geo-engineering technologies, which involve removing CO2 emissions or reflecting the sun's rays, are 'very likely to be technically possible [and] potentially useful', scientists claimed on Tuesday.
The claim is made despite significant uncertainties surrounding the techniques' effectiveness, cost and environmental impact.
The UK Royal Society, which carried out the research, said the high-risk strategy of geo-engineering, and its consequences, may be the 'price we may have to pay for failure to act on climate change'.
Professor John Shepherd, who led the study, elaborated: 'It is an unpalatable truth that unless we can succeed in greatly reducing CO2 emissions we are headed for a very uncomfortable and challenging climate future, and geo-engineering will be the only option left to limit further temperature increases.
'Our research found that some geo-engineering techniques could have serious unintended and detrimental effects on many people and ecosystems - yet we are still failing to take the only action that will prevent us from having to rely on them.'
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Two geo-engineering techniques evaluated by the Royal Society included carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM).
CDR techniques address the root of the problem - rising CO2 - and so have fewer uncertainties and risks, as they work to return the Earth to a more normal state.
They are therefore considered preferable to SRM techniques, but none has yet been demonstrated to be effective at an affordable cost, with acceptable environmental impacts, and they only work to reduce temperatures over very long timescales.
SRM techniques act by reflecting the sun's energy away from Earth, meaning they lower temperatures rapidly, but do not affect CO2 levels.
They therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, such as ocean acidification, and would need to be deployed for a very long time.
Although they are relatively cheap to deploy, there are considerable uncertainties about their regional consequences, and they only reduce some, but not all, of the effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems.
The report concludes that SRM techniques could be useful if a threshold is reached where action to reduce temperatures must be taken rapidly, but that they are not an alternative to emissions reductions or CDR techniques.
Professor Shepherd added, 'None of the geo-engineering technologies so far suggested is a magic bullet, and all have risks and uncertainties associated with them.
'It is essential that we strive to cut emissions now, but we must also face the very real possibility that we will fail.
'If plan B is to be an option in the future, considerable research and development of the different methods, their environmental impacts and governance issues must be undertaken now.
'Used irresponsibly or without regard for possible side effects, geo-engineering could have catastrophic consequences similar to those of climate change itself.
'We must ensure that a governance framework is in place to prevent this.'
Environmental campaigners are currently counting down to the Copenhagen climate change conference, which begins on December 7th.
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